Sub-2 Hour Marathon - partial transcripts from the Audios for the Week of June 24/13 and the Week of September 30/13
From the Week of June 24 2013:
Someone recently emailed me a question.....I'll read it:
Coach - I know you're probably aware that in the last couple of years there's been a lot written about whether it's possible to run a marathon in under 2 hours. I’m surprised you haven’t written about it…Do you think it's possible?
Well my answer is Yes... I do think it's possible for a man in the next 15 years.
And I think it's possible for a woman to run about 2:13
As a matter of fact I first dealt with this subject back in the 80s when I suggested a 2-hour marathon would be possible if we took the best physiologies from 3 athletes that had undergone lab testing. So I said if we take Steve Prefontaine’s VO2 max of 85, and combined that with Frank Shorter’s running efficiency and the former WR holder, Derek Clayton’s ability to run at about 85% of his VO2 max, we could get a 2 hour marathoner.
Also, I used to publish an internet rag called News and Views, and in the issue April 28, 1997, I wrote . “However, there's no question that we may in fact be seeing someone walloping the current world record. And as far back as the early 80's I made the point that if we put together in one athlete the running economy of a Frank Shorter and Derek Clayton's ability to run at a high percentage of his Maximum Oxygen Intake (VO2max)] and Steve Prefontaine’s VO2max (i.e., 85 ml./min./kg.) then we would see a marathon of around 2:01. Well it appears that there are such candidates in existence now - one is possibly Paul Tergat, who last year ran a sub 58 minute half marathon [*], which is the kind of capability required to run the 2:01.Mark my words.”
( * Note- when I subsequently double checked Tergat's Half Marathon best, it was actually 59:06)
At the time I wrote that, the WR was 2:06:50. The current WR of 2:03:38 was set in 2011 in Berlin by Patrick Musyoki . The same year, a wind-assisted and downhill time of 2:03.02 was run by another Kenyan in the Boston marathon.
And these times have been set by guys that are arguably a talent step below the level of the current and former 5 and 10 km. Ethiopian record holders Bekele and Haile Gebrselassie ….Don’t forget that Gebrselassie didn’t turn his attention to the marathon until he was 29 and then at the age of 35 he set a WR of 2:03:59.Think what he might have done if he had turned to the marathon much earlier.
So let me tell you another way at looking at this business
In 2001 I was a speaker at the carbo-loading dinner for the London [Ontario] Marathon And around that time there had been published 2 quite different conversion factors to apply to one’s 10 km best time in order to predict a marathon time. Jeff Galloway had suggested multiplying your best 10 km. time by 4.6 and Owen Anderson had suggested multiplying by 5.0.
In actual fact, these 2 conversion factors do represent the typical range….but the 5 factor might more often apply to a runner doing relatively little weekly distances and qualitative workouts, whereas the 4.6 factor might apply to a world class runner who is doing at least 200 km. per week and incorporating very high levels of qualitative work….a topic for another time.
But here’s the thing: if you look at the current male and female marathon world record holders male and female vs. their 10 km. PBS, they have demonstrated a factor of about 4.5.
So if we take Bekele’s current WR for the 10 km. which is 26:17.53 and multiply that by 4.5 you get 1:58.19
And if you take the women’s 10 km. world record of 29:31 you get 2:12:53
BTW, The women’s current WR is 2:15:25, held by Paula Radcliffe and set in 2003.
And for fun, I took Usain Bolt’s current WR time for 100m of 9.58 and extrapolated it to the marathon distance and which produced a time of 67 min and 22 sec. And I feel really confident that man in his current genetic state won’t run faster than that.
From the Week of September 30, 2013:
Of course the huge running news item from last week was the new world record for the men’s marathon that was set on Sunday in the Berlin Marathon by Kenya’s Wilson Kipsang.
Devoted fan that I am, I sacrificed some of my REMs and got out of bed to watch the race online at 3:00 in the morning. And I'm glad I did.
It was very cool that Kipsang who won the 2012 London Marathon and finished 3rd at the London Olympics....he announced before the race that he intended to go after the WR and his 2:03:23 did just that by 15 seconds.
Naturally, that's gotten the running community buzzing about whether the 2 hour marathon is possible.
And even a couple of days later one of my clients drew my attention to an article that was posted on the Runner’s World website entitled Why a Sub-2:00 Marathon Won't Happen Soon.And earlier this week it was reported that another Kenyan great Paul Tergat who himself had set a World Record of 2:04:55 in the 2003 Berlin Marathon said “Take it from me today; forget about it, it will never happen. It’s impossible,” and he supposedly went on to say “Definitely maybe 2:03:10 but anything lower than that, it’s going to a very uphill task,”
I found itreally surprising that he would say this given Kipsang’s performance.
So, let me give my 2 cents about Kipsang’s performance ….
Although the temperature was ideal, it was windy (Kipsang mentioned this post-race and I confirmed this by checking the local weather at race time). So, the weather was not perfect and this might have caused the pace setters to be slightly slower.
Not only that, he was averaging 29:10 per km. pace from 30 km. to the finish…..that’s 2:02:21 pace…. And he looked so easy and within himself doing that and was in no apparent distress after he crossed the finish.
Putting it all together I am compelled to say with perfect weather, and slightly faster and more even pacers who can go as far as 35 km. I truly believe Kipsang… as he is right now can certainly run at least 60 seconds faster, ….So that makes him a 2:02:23 guy
Now I have previously dealt with this topic in my June 24th Audio….. But I say it's a big mistake to think that Kipsang is potentially the best marathon potential.....in fact I would say, not even close..... a man like Kenenisa Bekele is in my opinion has much more potential as he is 30 sec faster at least over 10 km. than Kipsang...Multiply that difference by 4 and you get a 2:00 minute improvement....
And Bekele is threatening to move up to the marathon… and so is Mo Farah…..